Risk Inference Guide

Risk inference helps Minerva turn relevant, sourced text discovered during a search into explainable screening and Client Risk Rating signals. It complements direct watchlist and configured-list matches; it does not replace them. Access: Requires the Admin role or above. In the sidebar, go to Administration > Configuration, then open Risk Inference under Screening behaviours. Use this guide when you need to:

• understand the difference between list-backed and text-derived risk signals
• see when PEP, Criminal, and High Risk Industry inference run
• tune a workflow that is producing too many false-positive signals
• add local terminology or suppress a recurring phrase without writing regular expressions
• configure PEP terms separately for tiers 1 through 4
• audit or roll back a Risk Inference change

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What Risk Inference Does

Minerva combines structured records with public information discovered while a search is running. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is sourced public-web information. When Open Source is requested, Minerva retrieves that information in real time and carries sourced occupation, organization, notes, document titles, industry, employer, and other business context into the resolved profile. Risk inference evaluates resolved profile text from all applicable sources. Open Source supplies most newly discovered live-web context, but it is not the only possible source of text. Minerva does not treat every web mention as fact. A keyword finding is an explainable risk signal that analysts should review with the source, identity evidence, and surrounding context. The three inference types have different outcomes: Direct PEP or Criminal watchlist hits and configured-list results remain separate evidence. Disabling text inference does not disable those sources. When matched, PEP, Criminal, and High Risk Industry can each activate a dynamic Client Risk Rating factor with a default weight of 0.25, described in the CRR model as a 25-point factor. The final normalized score does not always rise by exactly 25 because other factors, normalization, and overriding criteria can affect the result.

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When Each Inference Runs

There are two conditions to keep distinct:

1. the feed gate that allows an inference engine to run
2. the feed combination that supplies the most useful real-time text

The same logic is used in each configured screening channel:

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Main Configuration Page

Each channel has its own PEP, Criminal, and High Risk Industry strategy. You can copy one channel into another or apply the active channel to all four after validating it.

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Strategy Settings

Each inference currently supports two strategies:

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Default Values

New and previously unconfigured workspaces use Keywords for all three inference types in all four channels. The built-in library is versioned and displayed in the dashboard with a Minerva defaults badge. The tables below summarize the current default categories and representative built-in terms. The terms shown on the configuration page are the authoritative library for the selected workspace.

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PEP Defaults by Tier

PEP has one fixed category for each tier. Tier 1 represents the most senior public exposure; tiers 2 through 4 cover progressively more regional, state-linked, and local roles. If text matches more than one tier, Minerva retains the highest applicable exposure level. PEP tier categories cannot be added or removed, which keeps the tier model stable. Admins can add or suppress terms within each tier.

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Criminal Defaults

The default Criminal events and allegations category includes terms such as arrested, incarcerated, convicted, charged with, wanted for, human trafficking, bribery, corruption, organized crime, tax evasion, and terrorism. Admins can add more Criminal categories when a local policy needs separate terminology or review ownership.

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High Risk Industry Defaults

High Risk Industry starts with these categories and representative terms: These categories are broad defaults, not a conclusion that every business in the category is prohibited or suspicious. They provide one input to Client Risk Rating and should be aligned with the organization’s own risk methodology.

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Editing Keyword Logic Without Regex

The expression builder is designed for compliance users. It stores structured, plain-language rules rather than asking an admin to enter regular expressions. For each category, you can:

• review the active Minerva built-in terms
• add a local term or phrase
• suppress a built-in term or add a false-positive suppression
• choose whether any or all added terms must match
• choose how an added term is recognized
• restore the Minerva defaults

A suppression is most useful when the same harmless phrase repeatedly causes a known false positive. For example, an admin might suppress student senator in PEP tier 2 or charged with overseeing in Criminal inference after confirming that those phrases are producing irrelevant hits.

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When to Tune Risk Inference

Tune from evidence rather than from one unusual result. A safe calibration sequence is:

1. collect a representative set of false positives and known true positives
2. identify the exact category, term, source field, and channel responsible
3. make the smallest term or suppression change that addresses the pattern
4. test the changed channel in a Calibration workspace
5. compare result volume, true-positive retention, and CRR changes against the baseline
6. review the change summary and save a clear reason
7. switch to the Live workspace, deliberately reapply and save the reviewed settings, then monitor the affected workflow

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Review, History, and Rollback

Risk Inference changes use the same workspace deployment controls as other tenant configuration sections. Before saving, Review changes shows:

• each affected channel and inference strategy
• added, changed, or removed terms and suppressions
• category and match-rule changes
• an optional change description

The history page records who changed the configuration, when it changed, the affected sections, and the saved description. Rollback restores a prior snapshot by creating a new history entry; it does not erase the audit trail.

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Related Guides

• PEP Policy
• Data Feeds
• Risk Rating
• Screening Guide
• Match Scoring Guide
• Workspaces Guide
• Risk Assessment Flow